Morning News (Reporter Chen Qiong) Multiple factors such as the European debt crisis, the US debt problem, and the expected warming of the Fed's third round of quantitative easing monetary policy have driven the international gold price to return to a strong upward trend. On WednesdTrack precious metal pricesay night, international gold prices soared all the way to the highest value in history at US$1,585 per ounce. On Thursday, they continued their ninth trading day's rise and rushed to US$1,590 per ounce, marking the US$1,600 per ounce mark.
In addition, international bulk commodities priced in US dollars are under pressure during this round of US dollar appreciation. The decline in the commodity market will also prompt investors to sell gold to make up for losses in other assets. In addition, before the end of the year, hedge funds will face seasonal dividend requirements and obtain cash by selling gold.
However, according to the annual survey of gold investors and analysts conducted by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), the price of gold is expected to exceed $2,000 per ounce in the next year. Participants estimated that gold consuming countries and India will continue to be the main demand for gold. As the Chinese and Indian people tend to have higher savings rates, and the recent low interest rates and unstable stock markets, it is speculated that gold will become an important savings target, making gold continue Be sought after. In addition, historical experience shows that the LBMA's annual survey is often too conservative in the forecast of gold prices, indicating that gold has continued to be optimistic for a long time.
3. According to data released by the customs on Thursday, the trade account surplus in September was 14.51 billion U.S. dollars, and the market expected a median surplus of 16.3 billion U.S. dollars. The trade account surplus in August was 17.76 billion U.S. dollars. Exports in September increased by 17.1% year-on-year, the growth rate was lower than the previous month's 24.5%, and the expected median increase was 20.7%; September imports increased by 20.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate was also lower than the previous month's 30.2%, with the expected median increase 24.5%.
In addition, we observed historical economic trends and found that the low interest rate environment in the US stock market and housing market bubble will eventually lead to inflation and even stagflation. At this time, the price of risky assets faces the risk of large-scale retreat. The current US stock market is particularly worthy of vigilance, and the linkage effect of the U.S. stock retracement driving the sharp decline of risky commodities has been verified by statistical historical data. The logic of inflation and asset bubbles triggered by low interest rates lies in the fact that the Fed uses newly created currencies to purchase bonds and funds overflow to trigger inflation to the real economy, and to the virtual economy to trigger asset price bubbles. Statistics have found that inflation tends to lag stock indexes by 3-6 months. , We expect that US inflation will have a significant upward trend in the second quarter.
In additTrack precious metal pricesion, ICBC previously launched a gold accumulation business in which investors purchase a fixed amount or amount of gold each month during the agreed agreement period. At maturity, they can redeem the gold in the form of physical gold bars, or sell the gold to obtain Money funds. ICBC’s accumulation fund business has a low threshold. The investment starting point is only 200 yuan per month, and ICBC professionals conduct capital management and investment operations. Therefore, it is more suitable for relatively small amount of investment, requiring long-term steady investment but no time or experience Investors who judge the market.
SterlingSmith, a futures expert in the institutional client department of Citigroup (CITI), said on Thursday that gold futures are currently facing resistance near $1,400 per ounce, and there may be little room for upside in the future. This also makes buyers appear defensive.