It can be seen from the performance of the stock markets of various countries. On May 7, the Dow Jones Index in the United States closed above 15,000 points for the first tiPrecious metals market priceme, the Nikkei 225 Index broke the 14,000 point mark for the first time since June 2008, and the DAX Index in Germany closed at 8181.78 points and also reached a new high. Regardless of whether the easing policy is effective or not, this is the only way for central banks of various countries. The implementation stage will give investors the expectation that the economy will improve. If it is effective, the stock markets and real economies of various countries will attract more funds. Will be left out.
Sean McGillivray, director of asset allocation at GreatPacificWealthManagement, said that the fundamentals make gold a safe-haven asset, but gold prices are expected to fluctuate greatly because it is still a small market compared to US Treasuries. The current market attention is very high, so fluctuations will be normal.
In June, gold showed a trend characteristic of first decline and then rise. In late June, the price of London gold broke through the previous high several times and closed up 2.85% that month. Driven by international gold prices, domestic gold prices have also generally risen. However, due to the effective control of the domestic epidemic in June, the number of infections in the United States continued to soar. The exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar appreciated by nearly 1%, and the domestic gold price rose less than the London gold price in June. Among them, Au99.99 on the Gold Exchange rose by 1.48%, Au (T+D) rose by 1.53%; the main gold futures contract on the Futures Exchange rose by 1.6%, and the growth rates of the three have decreased for two consecutive months. Au99.99 is a real spot contract, and the delivery method is both money and goods. The Au99.99 contract purchased on the gold exchange can apply for delivery if it reaches 100 lots or more. The delivery product is a gold ingot with a standard weight of 1 kg and a fineness of not less than 99.99%. Therefore, the trading volume of Au99.99 usually represents the demand for physical gold in the market. The demand for physical gold includes two aspects: one is investment demand related to the currency attribute of gold, and the other is consumption related to the commodity attribute of gold. Demand, consumer demand includes jewelry, industrial and dental gold. Most of the demand for physical gold in my country comes from consumer demand, and whether consumer demand is strong or not depends on the price of gold. In April, May and June, the domestic gold price continued to rise, while the trading volume of Au99.99 continued to decline. Au (T+D) and mAu (T+D) are deferred settlement contracts, which are bought and sold on the exchange in the form of margin payment. The minimum margin ratio is 6%. From the perspective of trading rules, these two contracts are often used for hedging or speculative trading. The amount of hedging depends on the market conditions of physical gold, and the amount of speculative trading depends on the trend and fluctuation of gold prices. To be honest, most of the trading volume of Au (T+D) and mAu (T+D) is contributed by speculative trading. Driven by international gold prices in mid-to-late June, domestic gold prices also gradually rose. The total trading volume of Au (T+D) and mAu (T+D) increased by 12.27% month-on-month, and the total open interest increased by 6.44%. The silver price in June both increased and the amplitude was smaller than that in May, but the trading volume of Ag (T+D) decreased slightly, and the open interest increased by 6.2%. The June trading volume of gold futures contracts in different months of the futures exchange was basically the same as that in May, and the open interest at the end of the month increased by 19.67%; the June trading volume of silver futures contracts in different months fell by 6.8% from the previous month, and the open interest at the end of the month increased by 12.26%. . In general, the positions of leveraged gold, silver futures and deferred contracts are increasing at the end of June, indicating that investors are bullish on gold and silver. Although the US non-agricultural employment population and unemployment rate data released on July 2 were significantly better than expected and previous values, they did not cause an effective blow to precious metals. Looking back at the non-agricultural employment data from January to June this year, the total number of employed people has decreased by 13.394 million. The non-agricultural employment data in June can only prove that employment has recovered from a very low point, but it is far from returning to the level before the outbreak. The sharp increase in the number of people infected with the epidemic in the United States last week has made investors worry that the economic recovery may be slower. Blindly investing in the real economy before the economy recovers will make people lose their money. Therefore, gold is favored under risk aversion. The U.S. bond yields on July 2 were still falling, indicating that people are more inclined to safe-haven assets. In addition, affected by the Fed's unlimited quantitative easing policy, there is a large amount of liquidity in the U.S. banking system, and the M1 stock is huge. When the epidemic is brought under control, lower interest rates will increase investment and increase inflation. In the long run, this property of fighting inflation will make the bull market of gold last for a long time.
Indeed, although the current domestic gold price is still following the international gold price, analysts have also noticed that the influence of factors on the gold price is also increasing. Statistics show that gold production has been the world's largest for 4 consecutive years. However, with the increase in domestic gold demand, domestic supply can no longer meet the national gold consumption demand. Last year, imported gold accounted for nearly 30% of the total supply. More. With such a large production demand and the continuous increase of investors, the influence of factors on the market will naturally gradually increase. Liu Yuning said.
Geithner said that in order to expand the effect, fiscal measures should be launched at the same time. What needs to be discussed at the 20-nation summit this weekend is the reform of financial institution review. However, because the attitude of the United States in many positions will not be expressed in a few weeks, this discussion will not be very effective. For example, some continental European countries called for strict scrutiny of hedge funds. This is not very recognized in London. Geithner remained silent on this matter.
Yesterday, the precious metals market continued to rise slightly, and once broke through the important resistance above, but then affected by factors such as the pressure of profitable selling andPrecious metals market price the rise of the US dollar, there was a slight retracement in the late trading. As of the close, London Gold reported $1,26.50, an increase of $0.3, an increase of 0.02%; spot silver reported $21.14, an increase of $0.14, an increase of 0.67%. During the US session, the U.S. dollar index rose from around 79.8 to 79.9, with a quote of $1.37 against the euro.
On Tuesday (September 24) in the Asian market in early trading, spot gold prices rebounded from a low level, and they are currently trading at around US$1325 per ounce and spot silver trading at US$21.75 per ounce. Concerns that the Federal Reserve (FED) will begin to reduce the size of bond purchases next month have caused gold and silver prices to fall again overnight. Many Fed officials took turns to deliver speeches on Monday, but their views did not reach consensus. The market still has doubts about the Fed's future monetary policy prospects.
Not only is the enthusiasm of ordinary investors for gold increasing, central banks of various countries also bought gold in large amounts in 2011. Last year, the central bank purchased 439.7 tons of gold, which was 4.71 times more than the 77 tons in 2010. In 2011, global gold demand rose to 4067.1 tons, valued at approximately US$205.5 billion. This is the first time that the value of global gold demand exceeded US$200 billion, and the demand hit the highest point since 1997. The main driving force of this increase comes from the investment field, with an annual demand of 1640.7 tons, an increase of 5% over 2010 and a value of 82.9 billion US dollars.
The gold price trend this week once again confirmed this analysis, and the price of gold rebounded simultaneously with European and American stock markets after Wednesday. According to this principle, it is further deduced that if the European and American stock markets are in a weak consolidation stage in the process of decline in the later period, the price of gold may continue to fluctuate and rebound. If the European and American stock markets show sustained strength, it will stimulate the continued increase in market risk appetite, which is detrimental to the gold price trend. Therefore, the best environment for the phased gold price to strengthen is for the European and American stock markets to continue the weak range consolidation. Based on the current market fundamentals, it is still possible that this kind of linkage is favorable to the gold market.